I noticed an interesting pattern in the market that replicates the scenario of summer 2023. Back then, Bitcoin experienced a prolonged compression of volatility, followed by a sharp explosion. Now, everything is repeating — the market is too calm, and this often precedes serious moves.

Look, the implied volatility index from Volmex Finance has dropped to 38%, repeating the same pattern. In May, volatility was around 50, and now it has decreased downward. Historically, such periods of energy compression end with explosive price swings. Like a stretched bowstring suddenly releasing energy — Bitcoin is accumulating potential for sharp movements.

Interestingly, October is again shaping up as a critical point. In 2023, when volatility was also suppressed, autumn brought a turning point. Bitcoin then fell to $25,000, and later rose to $46,000 by the end of the year. The fourth quarter is historically the strongest for BTC — with an average gain of about 85%.

The current situation calls for analysis. Bitcoin is fluctuating within a fairly narrow range, volatility expectations are low, but the market clearly underestimates future price turbulence. Such calm periods tend to end with sharp moves in either direction. The index is even approaching a two-year low of 36%.

It’s important to understand: implied volatility reflects what the market expects from price fluctuations. When it drops, it means traders are underestimating risk. History shows that volatility tends to revert to the mean, and price movements often come unexpectedly.

By the way, MicroStrategy last week purchased 535 Bitcoin for approximately $43 million at an average price of $80,340 per coin. The company has already spent about $61.8 billion on its BTC holdings. Such large players are clearly preparing for something serious.

If history repeats, October could again become a turning point when volatility increases due to a significant price move. The current BTC price is $81.21K, but energy is accumulating in the system. It’s worth closely monitoring this development.