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Today’s Gold Market Analysis

1. Market Summary‌

‌Price Performance‌: International spot gold fluctuated and fell during the day. As of 20:55 Beijing time, it was $4,692.32 per ounce, down 0.48%. During the Asian session, it once dipped to $4,670.35 per ounce (the largest single-day drop exceeding $50), and ultimately closed in the $4,690–$4,695 range. In China, the Shanghai Gold continuous contract was quoted at 1027.03 yuan per gram, up slightly by 0.20%, but retail prices at gold shops generally pulled back to 1420–1438 yuan per gram.

‌Driving Factors‌:

‌Geopolitical Risks Intensify‌: The US–Iran negotiations broke down; Iran refused the US ceasefire proposal; and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated, pushing crude oil prices higher (WTI crude oil rose more than 3%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations warmed up, weakening gold’s appeal.

‌Macro Pressure Intensifies‌: Strong US non-farm data combined with “quasi-overheated” economic signals (PMI and retail sales exceeding expectations) cooled market expectations for Fed rate cuts (the probability of rate hikes by year-end exceeds 20%). A stronger US dollar suppressed gold, which offers no yield.

‌Shifts in Fund Flows‌: In the short term, risk-avoidance funds shifted toward commodities such as crude oil, alongside technical sell-offs and profit-taking, which further heightened gold price volatility.

2. Technical Indicator Analysis‌

‌Pattern Structure‌:

‌Head and Shoulders Top Emerging‌: On a daily chart level, a head-and-shoulders top formation has taken shape, with the neckline near $4,678. After an effective intraday breakdown of this support, bearish momentum increases.

‌Fake Breakout Confirmation‌: The earlier breakout above $4,685 was judged to be a fake breakout; both the hourly MACD and RSI issued bearish signals.

‌Wave Theory‌:

The rebound from $4,500 shows a five-wave structure, but it is interpreted as the third wave of an irregular flat correction, suggesting that the medium-term trend has not reversed and that there is a risk of a retest of $4,500.

3. Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support Levels:

First Support Level: 4670–4700, key intraday zone

Second Support Level: 4600–4550, strong medium-term support

Resistance Levels:

First Resistance Level: 4714, initial resistance

Second Resistance Level: 4750–4765, strong pressure range

4. Outlook for the Next Period‌

‌Short Term (1–3 Days)‌:

‌Downside Risk Dominates‌: If geopolitical conditions do not ease or US CPI data (to be released on May 12) comes in above expectations, gold may test the $4,600–$4,550 range.

‌Opportunity for a Rebound‌: Holding above $4670 or CPI data cooling could trigger a technical rebound, targeting $4714–$4737.

‌Medium Term (1–3 Weeks)‌:

‌Heightened Tug-of-War Between Bulls and Bears‌: Geopolitical conflicts (Strait of Hormuz) and central bank gold purchases (Poland plans to increase reserves to 700 tons) provide support, but expectations of tighter Fed policy limit upside room.

‌Sideways Trading Range‌: A broad $4,600–$4,765 range-bound consolidation; a breakout requires major catalysts.