Is Tesla (TSLA) Stock Heading Back to $500? Piper Sandler Thinks So

TLDR

• Tesla stock gained nearly 10% last week, driven by expectations around autonomous driving news
• Tweets on X suggest Tesla is close to rolling out Full Self-Driving (FSD) in China
• FSD subscriptions hit 1.3 million in Q1 2026, up from 850,000 a year ago
• Piper Sandler reiterated an Overweight rating and $500 price target on Tesla
• Tesla stock remains about 14% below its all-time high of ~$500, set in December

Tesla stock is on the move again, and this time China’s AI ambitions appear to be the spark.

The stock was trading around $423–$428 on Monday morning after gaining almost 10% in the prior week. It added roughly 2%, 3%, and 4% on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday respectively.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

There were no major Wall Street upgrades or price target changes behind last week’s gains. Instead, investors have been watching Elon Musk’s social platform X for clues about Tesla’s next move.

Posts on X suggest Tesla is close to launching its Full Self-Driving driver-assistance technology in China. Tesla has not confirmed this.

FSD currently has over a million subscribers in the U.S. at $99 per month. In Q1 2026, Tesla reported 1.3 million FSD subscriptions, up from around 850,000 a year earlier.

China is the world’s largest EV market, and Tesla already generates more than 20% of its annual revenue there. A Chinese FSD launch would open a new recurring revenue stream.

FSD Growth and China Opportunity

The Chinese EV market is massive, and a successful FSD rollout there would be a meaningful addition to an already-growing subscription base.

Tesla’s robo-taxi service, launched in Austin in June, has now expanded to four cities. The company is also expected to unveil the third generation of its Optimus humanoid robot later this year.

These AI-driven businesses are at the center of Tesla’s long-term strategy, and any progress — especially in China — tends to move the stock.

Piper Sandler Reiterates $500 Target

Piper Sandler published an updated research report on Monday titled “The Definitive Guide to Investing in Tesla, 2nd Edition,” the first update in five years.

The firm kept its Overweight rating and $500 price target on TSLA, about 17% above Monday’s trading price.

The report covers 17 separate product lines, with Piper Sandler valuing the combined businesses at $400 per share.

That $400 figure does not include Optimus. The firm said investors are essentially getting Optimus for free at that valuation.

Context: Where the Stock Stands

Despite the recent rally, Tesla stock is still about 14% below its all-time high of nearly $500, reached in December 2025.

Year to date, TSLA was down 5% coming into Monday’s session. Over the past 12 months it is up 44%.

Not all recent news has been positive. In Portugal, Tesla registrations dropped 32.8% in April, even as the broader EV market grew 34.6%.

Goldman Sachs also reported a 1% decline in Tesla’s weekly orders in China during Week 17 of 2026, as local brands HIMA and Nio posted strong order growth.

Wolfe Research kept a Peerperform rating on Tesla, raising its 2026 EPS estimate to $1.89, still slightly below the consensus of $1.93.

Tesla’s 2026 Model Y became the first vehicle to pass the NHTSA’s new advanced driver assistance system tests, covering features like pedestrian emergency braking and lane-keeping assistance.

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