I just noticed an interesting story that could seriously impact crypto in the coming weeks. SpaceX is preparing for an IPO in June, and this is not just another offering — it involves a $75 billion valuation at $1.75 trillion. If everything goes as planned, it will be the largest debut in stock market history, surpassing Saudi Aramco in 2019 by more than 2.5 times.

But here’s the catch. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic together plan to raise over $240 billion by the end of the year. That’s a huge amount of capital that needs to be sourced somewhere. And here lies the main risk for cryptocurrencies: all these IPOs and crypto are competing for the same pool of risk-oriented liquidity.

If retail investors previously allocated their funds among meme coins, altcoins, and Bitcoin, now they will be distracted by SpaceX. Especially considering that retail allocation in this IPO will be about 30% of the offering — around $22 billion. That’s money that won’t go into crypto.

The paradox is that SpaceX itself already holds 8,285 Bitcoin on Coinbase Prime, indicating a serious attitude toward digital assets. But that doesn’t solve the liquidity situation in the broader market. The historical precedent is frightening. When Coinbase went public on April 14, 2021, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of about $64,800 on the same day, then collapsed 50% over six weeks. People took the listing as a mainstream signal, but it turned out to be a peak, not a beginning.

The current situation is a bit different. The market had five years to learn from Coinbase’s lesson. Spot Bitcoin ETFs show that demand has separated from broader flows. But the test will come in May and June, when allocators will make room for SpaceX subscriptions. The key signal — will crypto withstand this period or start declining as liquidity flows out?

Polymarket traders estimate the probability of the June listing at 65%, and the chance that SpaceX’s market cap will exceed $2 trillion on the first day at 53%. For comparison, Bitcoin is currently trading around $81.09k. The dynamics over the next six weeks will reveal whether crypto has learned its lesson or if it will have to start from scratch. Watch the charts.