Just noticed something interesting in the whale wallets. Large holders bought the dip hard last week when things got scary, but then dumped most of their positions as soon as BTC bounced back to $74k. Meanwhile, retail investors keep buying every time the price dips below $70k. That's the classic pattern that usually means a correction isn't finished yet.

The data is pretty clear on this one. Around 43% of Bitcoin supply is underwater right now, and every time we push higher, all these long-suffering holders are just looking to break even and exit. That's what happened at $74k—the bounce hit a wall of sellers. Add in the Fear and Greed Index sitting at 12 (extreme fear territory), and you've got a market at a crossroads.

Here's the thing: we've been bouncing between $60k and $74k for weeks now with huge intraday swings but almost zero net movement. That usually resolves one of two ways. Either retail keeps buying these dips until they run out of capital and we test $60k for real, or the underwater supply finally gets absorbed and we break above $74k with actual conviction. The whale behavior this week is giving me the vibe that the big players are betting on the former. We're watching a tug of war between smart money taking profits and retail chasing bounces, and one side is going to exhaust first.