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UBS: The Korean won is expected to be supported by international balance of payments capital inflows, and USD/KRW may fall below 1400
Investing.com - UBS maintains a bullish stance on the Korean won, citing attractive valuation and strong international balance of payments capital inflows expected to push the USD/KRW exchange rate below 1,400 in the second half of 2026.
UBS points out that the undervaluation of the won relative to export share exceeds 5%, and the JPY/KRW exchange rate is about 8% higher than its historical relationship with cyclical and defensive stocks. The bank expects that by 2026, South Korea’s export growth driven mainly by memory chips will exceed 250% year-on-year.
South Korea’s current account surplus is expected to remain above 10% of GDP. Additionally, inclusion of Korean government bonds in the World Government Bond Index (WGBI) is also likely to further boost capital inflows.
UBS estimates that South Korea’s international balance of payments will improve by at least 5 to 6 percentage points compared to 2025. The bank recently released a report highlighting five key points about the international capital flows in March.
UBS forecasts that the USD/KRW exchange rate will fall below 1,400 in the second half of 2026.
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