An interesting observation: Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. still hold around $85 billion, even though BTC has nearly halved from the October peak above $126,000. The net asset outflows totaled only $8.5 billion, which at first glance appears to be a sign of resilience. But there's a catch.

Marcus Thielen from 10x Research analyzed the ownership structure and found that there are fewer true long-term investors than it seems. Most of the ETF holdings are controlled by market makers and arbitrage hedge funds. What is a market maker essentially? A middleman who creates liquidity on the exchange, profiting from the spread between buy and sell prices. They hold neutral positions, not betting either up or down. Arbitrageurs operate similarly: taking opposite positions in different markets to profit from price differences. Neither of them exerts directional pressure on the market.

According to 13F filings at the end of 2025, between 55% and 75% of the largest BlackRock ETF (with $61 billion in assets) belongs to these players with hedged positions. Thielen noted that market makers even reduced their exposure by $1.6–$2.4 billion in the fourth quarter, indicating a decline in speculative demand. It turns out that asset stability is not a sign of bullish sentiment but simply a structural feature of the ETF market, where most participants play neutrally rather than truly believing in Bitcoin's growth.