I just noticed that Bitcoin has reached $81K and the dynamics here are quite interesting. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has had 8 consecutive days of inflows totaling $77k, which pushed the price from $68K to $77K. But this is where the market reading becomes tricky.

The issue is that the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis is at $80,100. If the rally continues and we reach that level, 54% of those who bought in the past five months will be in profit. Historically, when this happens, it has been an exit point for short-term holders using ETF bids to get out. I saw in Glassnode data that unrealized gains have increased to $4.4 million per hour — three times higher than previous local tops.

So now, the real question is whether $80,100 will act as support or resistance. ETF demand is real, but the exit liquidity it provides to short-term holders is also real. It’s worth monitoring whether we break through that level or pull back first. Perpetual funding is still negative, so there’s room for movement in either direction.