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Ray Dalio has drawn attention for criticizing Bitcoin at an interesting time.
On a recent podcast, Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, argued that Bitcoin should not be compared to gold. His reasons are that Bitcoin is not supported by central banks, it does not provide privacy, and it is threatened by the risks of quantum computing. In other words, he believes gold is the only unique asset.
But here’s what’s interesting: on the day he made that remark, what actually happened in the market? While gold fell by about 3%, dropping to $5,128, Bitcoin held up with only a 0.7% decline to $68,700. Even though U.S.–Iran tensions were escalating, gold—the asset Dalio promotes as a “asset to protect”—was sold off more heavily.
In fact, the movements of the two assets have diverged significantly over the past few months. From July to early October, they moved together, but after the big crypto crash in October, they began moving in opposite directions. Bitcoin is down more than 45% from its October peak, while gold had risen by 30% over the same period.
On Saturday, gold prices briefly surged in the initial attack, but then gave back those gains. Meanwhile, after being sold off, Bitcoin rebounded and is now trading in the mid-$67,000s. In other words, neither is acting as a complete safe haven.
Ray Dalio’s specific concerns are not new either. Doubts about Bitcoin’s transparency, the issue of whether central banks will accumulate assets on public ledgers, and the risks posed by quantum computing—these are points he has been making for some time.
That said, it’s interesting that he is not entirely bearish. Dalio actually holds about 1% of his portfolio in Bitcoin, and as part of diversification he has recommended a 15% allocation to Bitcoin or gold. In July, taking into account U.S. debt trends, he referred to this as the “best return-risk ratio.”
Last month, Dalio warned that the U.S.-led world order has “collapsed,” and said investors need to rethink how to protect their assets. But whether gold is still the only prescription is something the market is actively debating. The price action this week is not making it easy to support his claim.