This morning, several old groups were all sharing their LeDong robot trades.

Last night, the dark pool surged over 200 points, screenshots of over HKD 10,000 floating profit per lot were everywhere.

Watching this excited scene, I estimate many people are feeling envious.

Everyone is only focused on those lucky chosen ones eating the meat.

But no one is calculating how many people are not only missing out on a single sign-up but also enduring high capital interest for several days.

Retail investors are most easily fooled by headlines claiming over-subscription of 6,700 times, which makes their brains go bloodshot.

They think it's an absolute no-brainer buy signal.

Take a moment to calmly do the math, and you'll see.

→→→

6,700 times means the chance of winning a lottery ticket is painfully compressed to just 0.8%.

Those big players risking tens of millions to hit the top, after deducting capital costs, at most earn a little profit on one lot.

For those who get allocated, they’re definitely smiling, but for most retail investors, this is a low capital utilization rate that’s downright infuriating—a meat grinder.

Looking at the current trend in Hong Kong stocks, the only thing that offers ordinary investors a bit of a lifeline is that mandatory rebound mechanism.

Usually, the market share might be only 10%, but because LeDong’s oversubscription broke 100 times,

retail investors’ share was forcibly rebounded to 35%.

Before I go into the market, I always stare at this rebound threshold for a long time.

➢ If this lifeline isn’t triggered, putting in small funds is just paying broker fees and becoming cannon fodder, with no chance to get on the table.

→→→

Now, let’s talk about the game of the core position.

Many people participate in IPOs without even checking who the underwriters are, blindly following others (I have to say, luck is also part of strength, haha).

LeDong’s stability this time, do you really think it’s all due to AI concepts?

Actually, it’s Haitong International, Guotai Junan, and other big firms using real money as the stabilizer underneath.

If a cornerstone investor for a new stock is just some unknown junk fund,

even if the hype is blown out of proportion, the probability of opening below the IPO price is very high.

The pricing power a few days before listing is never about faith; it’s all about the underwriters’ faction muscle (these small details must be taken seriously).

→→→

As for yesterday afternoon’s dark pool trading, that’s the most authentic mirror.

I usually keep Futu and Bright’s dark pool quotes open on my computer at the same time.

If the dark pool trend is weak or even discounted, it indicates big funds are rushing to exit, and the next day’s opening is all about liquidation and stop-loss—no nonsense.

Last night, LeDong on Futu surged to 229%, with a somewhat outrageous buy premium, which is the only reason I dared to hold my core position calmly today.

Since 2019, I’ve been surviving through IPOs like Xiaomi all the way to now,

stepped into the biotech bubble burst pit,

and also caught a few AI dividends.

In this environment of severe liquidity divergence, I don’t believe in luck, only in some reference standards: no strong narrative, over-subscription under 500 times, no overnight if dark pool isn’t 50% safe cushion.

Although I got this piece of meat today, the market’s money is endless, but the principal can definitely be lost.

Don’t use your hard-earned money to fill those unpopular niche pits; understand the underlying rules before jumping in. It’s much more useful than some vague screenshot of a share order.

(Personal real trading logic breakdown, not investment or account opening advice. DYOR.)
#HongKongIPO