I noticed an interesting pattern in the Bitcoin market earlier. US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract money — they gained just $2.1 billion in eight days until April 23, and now the total inflow since launch has reached $58 billion. The total assets in these ETFs are now at $102 billion, which is a significant portion of the overall Bitcoin market cap.

The price itself rose from $68,000 to $77,000 during that time, nearly a 12% increase. But the real story is at the next level. I saw in Glassnode data that Bitcoin has reached $78,100, which is the average price at which active traders bought into the supply. This is the first time back here since January, and historically, this has been the transition point from bear conditions to a more bullish setup.

The problem is that the next hurdle is here — $80,100. That’s the average entry price of buyers over the past 155 days. If we reach that level, more than 54% of recent buyers are in profit. And this is where the pattern has occurred — every time it hits this level, short-term holders start selling to realize their gains. The market mechanics principle is simple: when many people are in profit at the same price, panic selling can easily happen.

Honestly, the ETF bid is real and strong. But it’s also used by short-term holders as an exit opportunity. I’ve seen that realized gains have reached $4.4 million per hour, three times higher than previous local highs. This is a clear sign that they are starting to sell.

The setup is critical at $80,000. If this level is broken by selling pressure, it’s like every local high in this cycle is being pierced. But if the ETF bid remains strong enough, it could still continue. Next week will be important to see who wins at that price — the new buyers through ETFs or the people ready to exit.