In recent days, geopolitical tensions have eased and spread across the entire market. With progress in ceasefire negotiations between Iran and Pakistan, Bitcoin has recovered to $75,000 and is now rising into the $81,000 range. It’s notable that this is not just a price rebound, but is functioning as part of the broader risk-on market environment.

Looking at the last 24 hours, BTC is up 0.42%, and over the week it’s up 2.81%. Ethereum is trading in the $2,330 range, XRP is at $1.46, and BNB is in the $655 range—major altcoins are also moving higher in tandem. In particular, Solana is up 13.58% over the week, and its recent strength stands out.

However, when compared with the stock market, the pace of crypto gains is relatively modest. After the MSCI All Country World Index bounced back from Monday’s stagnation, with Asia stocks leading, Bitcoin is lagging a bit. The fact that the perpetual futures funding rate has been negative for about 46 consecutive days also reflects caution in market sentiment.

What’s interesting is the movement in the mining sector. While publicly listed mining companies sold a record 32,000 BTC in the first quarter, mining difficulty has fallen by 2.43%. In other words, even as prices rise, miners’ profitability is still under pressure. This structural selling pressure could limit sustained upside above the $20,000 price range.

Net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $996.40 million last week, indicating strong interest from institutional investors. However, since large-scale miner selling is happening at the same time, for a sustained rally above $80,000, there needs to be enough buy demand to absorb this selling pressure.

Former President Trump says that the extension of the Wednesday deadline is unlikely, which also raises the risk that the ceasefire agreement could expire. In that case, it’s necessary to consider a scenario in which Bitcoin falls below $74,000. For now, geopolitical positive factors are supporting market sentiment, but the selling pressure from falling mining difficulty and the time constraint of the ceasefire deadline will likely be key factors driving near-term price movements.