As tensions in the Middle East have recently escalated again, the risk of a U.S.-Iran war is being brought back into focus, but what's interesting is that the reaction of cryptocurrencies is quite different from traditional markets. Bitcoin is currently trading near $81,000, and even as oil prices surge over $95 per barrel with a rise of more than 5%, and stock markets wobble, it remains relatively stable.

In a situation where the Strait of Hormuz control is tightening and tensions between the U.S. and Iran are escalating, traditional markets have shown significant volatility. European natural gas prices jumped nearly 11%, the S&P 500 futures declined, and European stock indices fell over 1% at opening. However, Bitcoin seems to absorb these geopolitical shocks quite well.

What I notice is that every time news related to Iran breaks, Bitcoin’s decline gets smaller and smaller. Initially, it showed large drops, but during repeated periods of tension like this, the selling volume has noticeably decreased. Ether is up about 0.5% near $2,330, and Solana has risen over 2% around $95. Unlike the early days when most of the top 10 coins were weak, it now seems that much of the geopolitical risk has already been priced in.

Market interpretations suggest two possibilities. First, investors sensitive to Iran-related news may have already sold off. Second, steady buying of spot ETFs might be providing stronger support than the futures-based weakness seen in the previous cycle.

What traders should watch moving forward are a few key points: whether the 10-year Treasury yield stays around 4.27%, whether the dollar’s strength continues to suppress Bitcoin, or if this time geopolitical factors weaken the correlation with stocks. If Bitcoin drops below $74,000, this hypothesis could be invalidated; conversely, if it stays above $74,000 while the situation in the Strait of Hormuz worsens, it would further prove that cryptocurrencies are functioning as a buffer asset against geopolitical shocks.

The duration of the U.S.-Iran war risk remains uncertain, but the resilience of the crypto market is noteworthy. As traditional assets continue to wobble, the key will be how major assets like Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana move in the coming days.