Since tensions related to Iran have flared up again, cryptocurrency declines have become more noticeable. Bitcoin is trading around 80.99K this morning, showing a slight increase over 24 hours, but the overall market still feels heavy.

Interestingly, while oil and stocks react sharply, cryptocurrencies haven't fallen that much. Ether is slightly up at 2.33K, Solana is up from the previous day at 95.11, and BNB remains steady at 654.20. Compared to past shocks related to Iran, the crypto market's reaction seems to be slowing down.

Brent crude oil has jumped to around $95.50, and European natural gas futures are also rising significantly. S&P 500 futures suggest a decline, but the drop in cryptocurrencies isn't as large. This may indicate that the market has already priced in some geopolitical tail risks.

Even with news of re-imposing restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz or escalating tensions with Iran, Bitcoin's selling pressure appears to be easing. In previous escalations, sharper declines were observed. There is debate among traders whether spot physical ETF buy orders are supporting the lower levels or if the market has already factored in this risk.

The key focus now is whether Bitcoin can hold above 80K. If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz worsens further, cryptocurrencies might gain a new valuation as assets that absorb geopolitical shocks. Conversely, if additional Iran-related news causes a drop below 73K, this hypothesis would be invalidated.

During U.S. trading hours, the movement of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, whether dollar buying via risk parity pushes Bitcoin down, or whether the stock correlation that led the first quarter relaxes, will be crucial. Today, geopolitics is clearly taking center stage over macro liquidity.

Personally, I find it interesting that cryptocurrencies are reacting more calmly than traditional markets. Is this just a temporary phenomenon or a sign of market maturity? Watching the weekend news flow, it seems worth paying attention to how things develop.