Has the bear market bottom been locked in early? Why October 2026?

1/ Core logic: BTC, as a high-risk asset, the bottom of the bear market is not something that falls out, but something that is endured. It is highly anchored to the Federal Reserve's monetary cycle:
End of rate hikes + high interest rates bottoming out = bottoming period

Expectations of rate cuts 3-6 months in advance = confirmation of the bottom
Iron law: The ultimate bottom always appears before rate cuts are implemented

It is being formed.

2/ Reviewing the complete two bull-bear cycles, looking for fixed timing patterns
First cycle: 2018–2019
The final phase of the Fed's last rate hike: late 2018
Bitcoin's ultimate bear market bottom: December 2018
First rate cut after the Fed: July 2019
The bottom appeared shortly after the rate hike ended, exactly 7 months before the first rate cut

Second cycle: 2022–2023
Super high inflation, aggressive rate hikes
Market preemptively prices in inflation peak and easing of rate hikes
So the bottom appears about half a year in advance, not waiting for the last rate hike
Bitcoin's ultimate bear market bottom: November 2022

3/ Macro situation in May 2026
Current situation: Rate hikes are completely over, high interest rates are plateauing.
Expectation: Market consensus is for the first rate cut at the end of 2026 — early 2027.

4/ Deriving the timing of this cycle's ultimate bottom
Following the convention of expecting rate cuts 3-6 months in advance:
Rate cut in early 2027 → Backward inference points to October 2026, which is the resonance window for liquidity, sentiment, and pricing dynamics.

5/ Summary: Don’t worry about the price dropping to tens of thousands, first lock in the time window of October 2026. The time scale > the price scale. Patience and endurance are the biggest Alpha.

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