I just came across an interesting analysis about why Bitcoin might head towards $85,000. There are actually three things happening that all point in the same direction, and that makes it quite remarkable.

Bitcoin is now around $81,000, and what stands out is that the price increase over the past few months has been significant — from about $63,000 to where we are now. But it’s not just about the price itself. Under the hood, there are things happening that suggest this isn’t over yet.

First, the on-chain side. Bitcoin has just broken above two key levels that analysts are really watching: the True Market Mean at $78,200 and the cost basis of short-term holders at $79,100. Why is that relevant? The True Market Mean is essentially the average price that active investors have paid for their coins. When Bitcoin trades above that, most active players are in profit. That feels good and boosts sentiment. The same logic applies to that cost basis level — it says something about what traders have recently paid.

Analysts from research firms say that if Bitcoin maintains these levels, we are dealing with one of the shortest deep-value periods ever. The next major threshold everyone is watching is around $85,200 — the Active Realized Price. That’s the point where the market really needs to start thinking about the next step.

Second: the futures markets are changing. A few months ago, the funding rates were negative, meaning there were many short sellers — mainly hedge funds and big players doing the classic arbitrage trade (buy spot, short futures). That trade caused constant selling pressure. Now, those rates have become neutral or slightly positive. That suggests many of those shorts have already been closed. Quite interesting, because that means a major source of downward pressure is gone. And if Bitcoin keeps rising while shorts are still open, a squeeze could happen — traders are forced to buy back, which could accelerate the price increase.

Third signal: options. Market makers — the guys providing liquidity — have what they call ‘short gamma’ around $82,000. That means they are set up in such a way that they are forced to hedge in the direction of the trend. So as Bitcoin rises, they have to buy to stay neutral. That adds extra buying pressure. It’s like a feedback loop — the movement reinforces itself.

So basically, we have: on-chain momentum, futures that are exerting less downward pressure, and options that mechanically add buying pressure. Three things all pointing toward further price increases.

Well, one warning: Bitcoin still moves strongly with US tech stocks. If they suddenly become risk-averse, this whole momentum could quickly reverse. But for now, the picture looks bullish.

That’s what I make of it — three layers of signals all pointing in the same direction.