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Been watching BTC closely over the past few months and there's something interesting setting up. Price just cleared through some key levels that the pros watch - the True Market Mean around $78.2K and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $79.1K. When you break above both of those, it usually signals most active traders are sitting in profit, which tends to fuel more upside. We're currently trading near $81K, so those are already in the rearview.
What's catching my attention though is the options market positioning. Market makers are short gamma around the $82K zone with roughly $2 billion in exposure nearby. Basically, as price pushes higher, their hedging activity could add more buying pressure - like a feedback loop that accelerates the move. That's the kind of setup that can drive a rally pretty hard if momentum stays bullish.
Another thing flipped recently - funding rates in futures went from heavily negative to neutral. For months we had this steady short pressure from hedge funds running arbitrage trades, but that's unwinding. Fewer shorts means less downside pressure, and if price keeps climbing, we could see some short squeezes that push it even harder.
Glassnode's research is pointing to the next major resistance around $85.2K - the Active Realized Price level. That's where all the non-dormant supply cost basis sits. If we can hold above current levels through the coming week, we might see a real push toward that target.
Obviously nothing's guaranteed - BTC still moves with tech stocks, so any risk-off in equities could derail this pretty quick. But right now, all three signals (on-chain, futures, options) are aligned in the same direction. That's the kind of setup worth paying attention to. Watching to see if we can break through that $85K zone or if we get rejected at current bitcoin price levels.