SK Hynix, what are you betting on now when you buy in? An 860% increase over the year, another 12.6% today. Should you chase? First, understand how this company makes money. The same factory, the same people, lost 7.7 trillion won in 2023, but by Q1 2026, profit margin is 72%. The company hasn't changed; only the price has. When memory prices rise, profits expand exponentially; when prices fall, profit margins can drop from 50% directly to zero. This is a complete cyclical stock. Currently, there are two bullish arguments: shortage and HBM. Shortage is a fact, but shortage doesn't justify high valuation. HBM is indeed a real technological leap, with high barriers and deep binding—but using the story of HBM to price the entire balance sheet can't hide the reality that ordinary DRAM is already oscillating at high levels. Whether the feast can continue depends on these points: 1. Capital expenditure of the three memory manufacturers (MU, Samsung, Hynix): all expanding capacity rapidly, signaling a top 2. Inventory turnover days in customers' hands: starting to accumulate inventory, indicating demand is peaking 3. The gap between spot prices and contract prices: narrowing, signaling a price cycle reversal 4. How much HBM contributes to revenue and how fast it grows: this is the core to judging whether the "story" can truly materialize Hynix's profit margin has surpassed the 2018 historical peak, with a price-to-book ratio of 9.6 times (the historical median is 1.8 times), but none of these indicators have fully turned yet. This cycle might really last longer. Historically, every peak has had plenty of reasons to say "this time is different," but they all end the same. Today’s Hynix is a top-cycle game under the banner of the "AI revolution." If you chase now, you're betting not on its technological dominance, but on the shortage driven by this round of AI. The surge could break historical patterns, allowing the "feast" to be served several more times. As for whether you should chase? It depends on whether you feel like you're the last one to pull out the chair. After all, history tells us: when everyone says "this time is different," it usually ends the same. #美股超话