Has the bear market bottom been pre-locked? Why October 2026?

1/ Core logic: BTC, as a high-risk asset, the bottom of the bear market is not something that falls out but something that is endured. It is highly anchored to the Federal Reserve's monetary cycle:
End of rate hikes + high interest rate bottoming = bottoming period
Expecting rate cut 3-6 months in advance = confirming the bottom
Iron law: The ultimate bottom is always formed before the rate cut is implemented.
2/ Reviewing the complete bull and bear cycles of the past two rounds, looking for fixed timing patterns
First cycle: 2018–2019
The final phase of the Fed's last rate hike: second half of 2018
Bitcoin's ultimate bear market bottom: December 2018
First rate cut after the Fed: July 2019
The bottom appeared shortly after the rate hike ended, exactly 7 months before the first rate cut
Second cycle: 2022–2023
Super high inflation, aggressive rate hikes
Market preemptively prices in inflation peak and easing of rate hikes
So the bottom comes about half a year early, not waiting for the last rate hike
Bitcoin's ultimate bear market bottom: November 2022
3/ Macro outlook for May 2026
Current situation: Rate hikes are completely over, high interest rates are plateauing at high levels.
Expected: Market consensus is for the first rate cut between late 2026 and early 2027.
4/ Deriving the timing of this cycle's ultimate bottom
Following the convention of 3-6 months of anticipation before rate cuts: 👉
Rate cut in early 2027 → reverse projection points to October 2026 — this is the resonance window for liquidity, sentiment, and pricing game.
5/ Summary: Don’t get hung up on whether the price drops to tens of thousands; focus first on the October 2026 time window. The time scale > the price scale. Patience and endurance are the biggest Alpha.
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