#Gate广场五月交易分享 The Federal Reserve is expected to see inflation heat up in April, with BTC facing the risk of dropping to $70k

On May 10, Bitcoin may face weaker support when the US releases its inflation report next week, compared to the previous two CPI data releases, increasing the risk of a pullback to $70,000.
The latest Cleveland Fed inflation forecast estimates that April's CPI year-over-year rose to 3.56%, up from 3.3% in March; the expected monthly CPI is 0.45% (below 0.9%), with core CPI at 2.56% YoY and 0.21% MoM (previously 2.6% and 0.2%). The official April CPI report will be released on May 12. This keeps the inflation picture complex—despite a slowdown in monthly pace and roughly stable core inflation, overall CPI is still expected to accelerate again.
For risk assets, this is not an ideal environment. A strong annual CPI reading could reinforce the Fed's difficulty in quickly cutting rates, often suppressing speculative trading like Bitcoin.
However, Bitcoin has previously avoided deeper declines amid hotter CPI data. The March CPI report showed overall inflation rising from 2.4% in February to 3.3%, yet BTC prices instead increased by over 15%. One reason is that institutional buyers absorbed a volume equivalent to over 500% of the newly mined Bitcoin supply, with Strategy being a major player. But this support now appears to have weakened. Strategy has paused its BTC purchases, and its STRC preferred shares continue to trade below the $100 par value. When STRC trades below par, the efficiency of issuing new shares declines, limiting Strategy's ability to raise new capital to buy more Bitcoin.
Analyst Killa said that large investors might start reducing their risk exposure around the inflation report, citing a cautious pattern similar to that seen before the 2025 CPI event. He stated: "The key level to hold is the weekly opening price of $78,600; if it breaks, the next downside targets are $74,000 to $75,000."
On the technical side, Bitcoin is forming a classic ascending wedge on the daily chart, a pattern considered bearish reversal. As of Sunday, BTC is rising toward the wedge's apex, around $84,000, where the two trendlines converge. A break below this level could trigger a decline toward the measured target of around $70,000. Conversely, a breakout above the apex (which coincides with the 200-day EMA) could completely negate the bearish structure, with the next upside targets in the $90,000 to $95,000 range.