Whenever Iran and Pakistan make progress in ceasefire negotiations, Bitcoin reacts. It has shown a 1.5% increase over the past 24 hours, recovering close to $80k again. The market seems to be optimistic about this easing of geopolitical tensions.

Looking at the current spot price, Bitcoin is trading around $80.89K. On a 7-day basis, it’s up 1.47%. Ethereum has also gained 0.29%, and XRP is up 1.89%, indicating a buying bias across altcoins. Solana has surged 12.22% over the week, and BNB remains solid.

However, what’s concerning here is the divergence from the stock market. The MSCI ACWI has continued a 11-day streak of gains with only one brief correction since the start of the conflict easing. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has only recovered from below $74,000 to its current level during this period. In other words, Bitcoin is relatively lagging in the broader risk-on environment.

A deeper issue appears to be in the mining sector. Listed mining companies sold a record 32,000 BTC in the first quarter. Difficulty has also decreased by 2.43%, adjusted to 135.59 trillion. This suggests that industry margins are still under pressure. Even though prices are recovering, miners are actively continuing to sell.

Funding rate data is also intriguing. The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures has been negative for about 46 consecutive days, the longest since the FTX collapse in 2022. Meanwhile, there is strong buying inflow into spot ETFs. This indicates that spot investors are bullish, but futures traders are building short positions.

From a trader’s perspective, the next key level is whether Bitcoin can break above $76,000. If it does, the path to $85,000 could open. Conversely, if the ceasefire deadline mentioned by Trump on Wednesday is extended without an agreement, there’s a risk of falling below $74,000.

As Asian stocks lead the way, gold and crude oil are in a correction phase. Consumer confidence remains at historically low levels, and the gap between Wall Street and Main Street continues to widen. In an era where institutional investors and long-term cycle dynamics shape the market, how assets like Bitcoin are positioned is not just a matter of price but must be considered within the overall macro picture.