Been thinking about something that doesn't get talked about enough in crypto bear cycles - what I call the 'time pain' factor. Most people focus on price when they're looking for a bottom, but honestly, the real floor often comes after months of boring sideways action that just wears people down mentally.

Here's the thing about crypto bear markets: they're not just about hitting a low number on the chart. They're about washing out the weak hands, exhausting the narratives, and basically draining all the hopium from the market until nobody wants to talk about it anymore. That psychological reset takes time. Real time.

I've noticed this pattern repeatedly. The sharpest crashes actually bottom pretty quickly - people panic, capitulate, and then you get a violent reversal. But the grinding, months-long bear markets? Those are the ones that actually establish true floors because they force everyone through a different kind of pain. Not the shock of seeing your portfolio down 80% in weeks. It's the slow torture of watching nothing happen, watching the news cycle move on, watching people just... stop caring.

The crypto bear we're in right now might need exactly that kind of treatment. Not another crash necessarily, but more of this sideways, boring consolidation that makes people question whether crypto even matters anymore. That's when you know you're close to real capitulation.

People underestimate how much time the market needs to reset sentiment. It's not about one specific price level - it's about the combination of price discovery plus psychological exhaustion plus time decay on all the bullish narratives. When all three align, that's when you get a genuine floor that can actually support a new cycle.

So if you're waiting for the 'bottom' in this crypto bear market, don't just watch the charts. Watch the sentiment. When the last permabull goes quiet and even the bears get bored, that's probably when something's about to shift.