A 7-Fold Surge in One Year, Is Micron Already on the “Cliff Edge”?

Today, let’s talk about Micron, the giant that has increased sevenfold in a year—are they in danger of falling off the edge?

You can check out its weekly chart yourself; in the past week, it rose from 560 to 750, a 33% increase. Note, this isn’t a small-cap speculative stock; this is a company with a market cap of 850 billion.

Such a market movement indicates that the market is already in a state of “extreme greed” or there are no longer any brave short sellers.

Anyway, I saw these candlesticks and felt a chill down my spine, as if it could collapse at any moment! Let’s take a detailed look below!

1. Introduction

Micron Technology is a global leader in memory and storage solutions, founded in 1978, headquartered in Boise, Idaho, USA. The company focuses on core products such as DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory), NAND flash, and high-bandwidth memory (HBM).

Among them:

• DRAM (accounting for about 79% of Q2 FY2026 revenue): including HBM (AI accelerator core), server/data center DRAM, graphics DRAM, etc. HBM, the high-bandwidth memory, is the current growth engine and is 100% sold out through the end of 2026.

• NAND (about 21%): including enterprise SSDs, consumer storage, and other products, recently launching innovative products like the 245TB Micron 6600 ION data center SSD.

Micron has strategically exited some consumer-grade businesses and shifted toward high-margin AI/data center high-end products.

2. Explosive AI Demand

In the SanDisk section, we mentioned that AI data centers demand 8-10 times more memory than traditional data centers. Micron’s most critical product, HBM (high-bandwidth memory), is the core computing layer for AI, essentially providing high-speed data transfer to GPUs. To give a simple analogy: if data is gasoline, then the GPU is the engine, and HBM is the pipeline connecting the engine and the gasoline. If the pipeline isn’t working, you can’t increase data throughput, so even if you install a V8 engine, it’s useless!

Therefore, their most core client now is NVIDIA! Of course, among the MAG7, companies like Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, and Oracle that are building AI data centers are also their clients.

Because HBM has very high technical barriers, only three companies can currently produce it: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron! Currently, Micron is catching up with Hynix, and Samsung is ranked third!

3. Financial Data

Market cap of 842.2 billion, P/E ratio of 30. Revenue and net profit margins are expected to surge in 2025, from Q2 revenue of 8 billion and net income of 1.5 billion to 23.8 billion in revenue and 13.7 billion in net income in Q2 2026, with a net profit margin of 57%! Revenue has tripled, net income has increased ninefold, making it a profit-making machine!

The current forecast for 2026 revenue is 1.07 trillion, with the 2025 Q2 estimate at 23.8B, actual reaching 238 billion, far exceeding expectations!

If we calculate based on the 2026 estimate of 1.075 trillion * 57% (net profit margin) = 20B, then 8,422 / 612 ≈ 13.7 times dynamic P/E ratio!

So, from a valuation perspective, it’s not too high, which makes these investors go all out like crazy!

4. Risks

Micron’s capital expenditure at 25 years is 14 billion, used for HBM, factory construction, and R&D. Looking at the 2026 financial report, capital expenditure has been increased to over 25 billion dollars, indicating that Micron is expanding rapidly! In 2027, capital expenditure will increase by another 10 billion dollars on top of 2026!

What does this mean? It means: Micron is all-in on AI.

It’s similar to what was said about SanDisk before: when these infrastructure manufacturers massively expand, and AI demand weakens, danger will come.

Micron has experienced the internet bubble of 2000, and the scenario then was exactly the same as now. In 2000, the internet boom led to widespread PC adoption and enterprise IT upgrades, requiring massive enterprise databases and servers. Demand for DRAM/NAND skyrocketed!

Then, as everyone knows, reckless and massive expansion led to a major industry crash.

Now, these giants are frantically engaging in an AI arms race, fearing falling behind and missing the next era’s crown, building AI data centers at all costs.

My view is that AI models are winner-takes-all; losers will be pushed out of the game because only the strongest can dominate the market. AI models are not consumer products; they have different customization needs. So these giants also understand the consequences—they don’t want to lose, but ultimately, there will be winners and losers! When the outcome is decided, and the bubble bursts!

I think the specific timing can refer to the article from May 8, where AI prodigy Leopold predicted that by 2027, AI will reach self-evolution—self-improvement—because whoever achieves this first will gain a leading edge and “eliminate competitors”!

From recent programs, we see that both SanDisk and Micron are targeting expansion cycles toward 2027. This is no coincidence! Of course, the market bubble may burst even sooner!