Alibaba (BABA) Stock: What Wall Street Expects from Q4 Earnings Wednesday

TLDR

• Alibaba reports Q4 FY26 earnings on May 13, before the market opens
• BABA stock is down 4% year-to-date heading into results
• Revenue is forecast at ~246.5 billion yuan, up from 236.45 billion yuan a year ago
• Net profit is expected to fall to 11.16 billion yuan from 12.38 billion yuan
• Wall Street holds a Strong Buy consensus with an average price target of $184.07, implying ~31% upside

Alibaba is set to report Q4 FY26 results on Wednesday, May 13, before the market opens. BABA stock is trading down roughly 4% so far this year.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, BABA

Analysts forecast revenue of 246.475 billion yuan for the quarter, according to FactSet. That compares to 236.45 billion yuan in the same period a year ago — roughly a 4% rise.

Net profit is expected to come in at 11.16 billion yuan. That’s a step down from the 12.38 billion yuan Alibaba posted in the year-ago quarter.

The earnings-per-share estimate from some Wall Street desks puts the figure at $0.90 for the quarter. That would be a sharp drop from $1.83 in the same quarter last year.

Last quarter didn’t help sentiment. Alibaba missed on both the top and bottom lines, reporting earnings of RMB 7.09 per ADS against estimates of RMB 10.94.

Revenue that quarter rose just 2% year over year to RMB 284.84 billion, falling short of the RMB 289.3 billion consensus. Adjusted EBITA dropped 57% from a year ago as margin pressure bit hard.

AI Spending in Focus

Investors will be watching AI costs closely. Daiwa analysts flagged that Alibaba likely ramped up AI investment in the first calendar quarter, with losses tied to model training and heavy marketing of its Qwen app.

Those costs may have weighed on earnings. But the same analysts say they remain positive on the company’s AI potential and medium-term monetization outlook.

Alibaba’s quick-commerce segment is also on the radar. CGS International analysts project revenue from that unit grew around 40% in the quarter, driven by higher order volumes.

Who Owns BABA?

Public and individual investors hold the bulk of the stock — 88.44% according to TipRanks. Insiders follow at 7.27%, with mutual funds and other institutional investors making up the rest.

Among top insiders, Joseph C. Tsai holds roughly a 4.82% stake. Co-founder Fang Jiang holds about 2.20%.

On the fund side, Vanguard Chester Funds holds 0.47% of BABA, while Dodge & Cox Funds owns 0.37%.

The heavy retail ownership makes BABA more reactive to news and sentiment swings — something worth keeping in mind going into a print that’s had a mixed track record lately.

Despite the headwinds, Wall Street isn’t giving up on the stock. Alibaba carries a Strong Buy consensus rating from 14 Buy ratings and 2 Holds over the past three months.

The average price target sits at $184.07, which implies around 31% upside from current levels.

Alibaba’s Hong Kong-listed stock gained 13% in Q1 2026, lifted by broader optimism toward Hong Kong tech names.

Quick-commerce losses are expected to have narrowed in the quarter. Analysts at CGS International believe the segment could turn profitable by fiscal year 2029.

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