CITIC Futures: Copper mine supply disruptions recur, copper prices trending stronger

On the macro front, conflicts in the Middle East have eased compared to earlier stages, and global economic data remains relatively strong, keeping short-term macro sentiment optimistic, and copper prices continue to rebound. From the supply and demand perspective, disruptions in copper mine supply have intensified, with production cuts in Chile, Indonesia, and other regions exacerbating the tightness in the copper mine market, and recent disruptions increasing. Many mining companies have delayed the resumption of production at their copper mines, further deepening the logic of supply tightness. Recently, smelters’ copper concentrate processing fees have continued to decline, reaching historically low levels. Regarding smelting, as raw material supply issues become more prominent, there is an expectation of a continued slowdown in the growth of refined copper supply. Recently, overseas smelters have announced production reduction plans, and domestic smelters are also gradually undergoing maintenance. On the demand side, the recovery continues month-on-month. Currently, terminal demand remains in the peak season, and downstream enterprises’ operating rates are still good. However, as copper prices rise, downstream inventory replenishment willingness has weakened, and the pace of destocking has slowed, with inventories slightly accumulating this week. (CITIC Futures)