Over the past two days, I’ve seen everyone putting stablecoin supply, ETF net inflows, and OTC funds on the same chart, and I started to daydream: “So it’s about to take off”… I’m a little afraid of this impulse to treat correlation as causation. To put it plainly, more stablecoins could also mean everyone is stocking up first and not daring to fire; ETF inflows might also just mean funds are being routed through a different channel and sitting there. Sentiment is like the weather—it can change on a dime.

I tried it myself with 20 bucks, and found that what matters more is to wait: wait for trading to pick up, and wait for on-chain transfers to be less “empty.” While I’m at it, let me vent about the modularization and DA layer narrative—developers are chatting up a storm, but ordinary users (including me) are totally clueless. Anyway, I’ll observe for now; don’t rush to attach a story to every curve.