CITIC Futures: Supply constraints still exist, tin prices fluctuate sideways

The supply of tin ore remains tight: Wa State is promoting the resumption of high-grade tin mines in low-altitude areas, but the overall resumption progress is still slow; on the Indonesian side, attention should be paid to the recovery of refined tin exports in May. According to my Steel Network, the spot transaction volume of tin in May as of this week is 0 tons; the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo remains severe, and supply risks remain high. Looking ahead, the supply-side issues of tin have eased somewhat compared to before, but the supply in main producing areas still remains fragile. On the demand side, the rapid development of AI has driven the semiconductor industry to maintain high growth, but this year, global new photovoltaic installations may see no growth, and the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales may slow down. However, other traditional fields such as tin-plated sheets and tin chemicals remain basically stable. Considering the rebuilding of industry chain inventories, tin ingot demand is expected to continue growing. Overall, supply risks still exist, and combined with the resilience of downstream demand, the bottom support for tin prices is still present. (CITIC Futures)