This Week’s Key Events + Key Data

I. This Week’s Super Core Events ()

1. China-U.S. Economic and Trade Negotiations (Highest Level)
- Time: Wednesday (5.12–13)
- Level: Vice Premier He Lifeng leads the delegation, holding talks with the U.S. in South Korea
- Impact: Directly relates to tariffs, trade barriers, and market sentiment— the biggest macro event of the week.
2. Powell’s Tenure as Federal Reserve Chair Ends (Milestone)
- Time: Friday (5.15)
- Key: He resigns as Chair but remains on the Board of Governors until 2028, and the Federal Reserve enters the transition period as Waller takes over
- Impact: Short-term increase in uncertainty around Fed policies, sensitive to the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and gold.
3. Speeches by Fed Officials in High Frequency (All Week)
- Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday/Friday: Williams, Goolsbee, Collins, Kashkari, Logan, Hamack, Balz take turns speaking
- Purpose: Release signals on the timing/path of rate cuts, influencing interest-rate expectations.
4. Big-Ticket Company Earnings: Alibaba/Tencent/JD.com (Tuesday–Wednesday)
- Performance of internet giants, affecting Hong Kong stocks/Chinese concept stock sentiment.

II. This Week’s Core Data (Ranked by Importance)

Monday: April CPI year-over-year 1.2% (prior 1.0%, expected 0.9%) — Mild inflation, within the normal range
- Monday: April M2 (TBD) — Observe liquidity tightness/looseness
- Friday: April total electricity consumption for the whole society — A barometer of economic conditions

Tuesday (Inflation Super Day)

- April CPI year-over-year not seasonally adjusted (expected ≈3.4%)
- April CPI month-over-month after seasonal adjustment
- April core CPI month-over-month after seasonal adjustment (Key!) — Impacts the Fed’s judgment on rate cuts
- ADP Employment (the “mini” non-farm payrolls) — A preview of Friday’s non-farm payrolls
- NFIB Small Business Confidence

Wednesday

- April PPI year-over-year/month-over-month — Upstream inflation pressure
- EIA crude oil inventories + OPEC/IEA monthly reports — Sources of oil price volatility

Thursday

- Initial jobless claims — Strength/weakness of the labor market
- April retail sales month-over-month — Resilience of U.S. consumer demand

Friday

- May New York Fed manufacturing index
- April industrial production month-over-month

Eurozone / Germany

- Tuesday: Germany/Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index — Eurozone confidence
- Wednesday: Eurozone Q1 GDP revision, employment, industrial output

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III. One-Message Summary

- Tuesday: Watch U.S. CPI (lock in rate-cut expectations)
- Wednesday: Watch China-U.S. economic and trade negotiations (lock in risk appetite)
- Friday: Watch Powell step down + U.S. data (lock in the dollar/rates)