Bitcoin is fluctuating around $80,000 right now, but what caught my attention was that Coinbase premium indicator. You know when you follow these demand signals in the US? Well, it went from -0.22% at the bottom of the trough to -0.05% now. Still negative, but the recovery is clear.

This suggests that American investors have finally started buying the dip when that forced selling pressure eased. Historically, when this index becomes quite negative, it means that US traders are selling aggressively or staying on the sidelines. The change indicates that some players found value at lower levels, especially after that heavy retracement Bitcoin experienced.

But here’s the thing: the premium hasn't turned positive. And that matters because when it does turn positive, you usually see more consistent accumulation and renewed risk appetite. What we have now is more selective, not broad conviction. Volumes on major exchanges remain well below last year's peak. Liquidity is tight, which means prices can jump significantly when selling dries up, but it also makes the market fragile if buyers lose momentum.

The US scenario remains key. You have Wall Street rising with BTC and the Nasdaq while consumer sentiment plummets. The more we move forward, the clearer it becomes that crypto and stocks are being driven by institutional capital, not retail demand. So for now, it’s more tactical buying, not strategic.