Why not recommend "Chasing High Yes"


Regarding this event, my strategic combination is as follows. Here, it is important to distinguish between "lottery speculation" and "rational investment."
🎯 Strategy core: Gradually short (Sell Yes / Buy No)
· Operation suggestion: Buy "No" in batches within the 7%-9% range.
· Logic: As time passes (for example, if no new second-generation cases appear in the next 3-4 weeks), panic will completely dissipate, and the probability of Yes will likely return to zero (i.e., drop to 1%-2%). At this point, buying No will yield returns equivalent to the market recovery price difference.
· Risk warning: The only black swan risk is an unknown super-spreading event. Given the very low R0 value of this virus, this probability is extremely small. #Polymarket每日热点
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Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Yes 8.7%
No 91%
$1.63M Vol
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