I noticed an interesting pattern: when the Bank of Japan signals a pause in rate hikes, Bitcoin begins to grow significantly. This time is no exception — a breakout above $80k was supported precisely by Governor Ueda’s stance, who cooled market expectations ahead of the April 28 meeting.

What’s the essence? Japan has been pursuing a loose monetary policy for quite some time. The weak yen (currently around 160 to the dollar) creates ideal conditions for carry trade — investors borrow cheaply in yen and invest in riskier assets with higher returns. Cryptocurrencies, of course, top that list. Every time the BoJ hints at tightening policy, these positions start to unwind, and then Bitcoin drops sharply. I remember August 2024 — an unexpected rate hike caused a crash from $64k to $49k in two days.

But this time, the situation is different. Ueda just indicated that trading will remain stable for at least another month. This is also confirmed by bond data — the auction of 20-year Japanese bonds on Tuesday attracted the strongest demand since 2019. The demand ratio was 4.82 compared to an average of 3.27. This signals that institutional capital believes in a pause in the tightening cycle.

What’s happening in the crypto market? Over the past week, open interest in Bitcoin increased by $2.1 billion, and in Ethereum by $2.2 billion within 24 hours. Some of these positions are financed directly or indirectly through the cheap liquidity in yen, which Ueda just extended. Margin positions are growing because carry trade remains profitable.

Add to this geopolitics. Japan imports over 90% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. If negotiations between the US and Iran lead to an agreement and oil prices fall, inflationary pressure in Japan will weaken even further. Then the Bank of Japan will have even fewer reasons to raise rates, and carry trade will continue supporting risk assets longer.

Six months ago, $73k was a psychological barrier that couldn’t be broken through. Obstacles were everywhere — oil, interest rates, geopolitics. But when macroeconomic pressure eases, especially from Japan, the market gets a green light. And it broke above.

An interesting contrast: Bitcoin and Nasdaq are rising, bringing profits to American investors. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment in the US has fallen to record lows. Analysts say this reflects the growing gap between Wall Street and Main Street — cryptocurrencies and stocks are increasingly driven by institutional capital and long-term innovation cycles, not everyday family finances.

Overall, the Bank of Japan’s caution is another factor pushing Bitcoin higher. As long as Ueda maintains the course, carry trade remains a powerful driver for the crypto market.