Just went back through some on-chain data and noticed something interesting about Bitcoin demand patterns. Since July, we've been seeing roughly 62,000 BTC absorbed monthly - that's the kind of pace we saw back in Q4 2020, 2021, and 2024 when things really popped off. Looks like whales and ETFs are doing most of the heavy lifting here. Large holders are stacking at around 331,000 BTC annually, which is actually stronger than what we saw last year, and ETFs grabbed over 200K BTC in Q4 2024 alone. That's a lot of institutional dry powder sitting in the market. Now, here's where it gets interesting for bitcoin price prediction purposes. The key level everyone's watching is $116,000 on the Trader's Realized Price metric. Break above that decisively and we could be looking at a real bull phase kicking in, with potential targets somewhere between $160K and $200K. That's the kind of move we're talking about for late 2025 scenarios. The Bull Score Index has been hovering around 40-50 lately, which historically marks that inflection point. Last year at this time, the index broke 50 and then BTC went from $70K to $100K pretty quick. If demand stays this strong and we get that technical confirmation, the setup could repeat. Obviously things look different now - we're seeing divergence between crypto/equities and broader consumer sentiment. But the on-chain metrics are definitely worth paying attention to. The institutional accumulation phase seems real, and that usually precedes the bigger moves. Watching to see if we get that breakout confirmation soon.

BTC0.64%
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