🟡 Hormuz without ships; the chart no longer reacts to economic indicators

For several weeks now, the market has been living not so much on economics as on headlines about Iran, the US, and the Strait of Hormuz. And this is very clearly visible in gold: any statement can sharply change sentiment, and impulses on the chart appear faster than the market can properly digest them.

📰 What drove the price
🟠 In the Strait of Hormuz, hourslong clashes continued between Iranian forces and US military ships. For the market, this is a direct geopolitical risk, especially given the role of the Strait of Hormuz in global oil logistics
🟠 Later, reports came in that the fighting had died down, but Iran is ready to respond with even greater force if the situation escalates again. In other words, the tension didn’t disappear—it just moved temporarily into a standby mode
🟠 According to Anadolu, the movement of major commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz has completely stopped since Thursday. This is no longer just news noise, but a factor that can weigh on oil, inflation expectations, and demand for safe assets
🟠 Trump called Iran’s response to the peace proposal “absolutely unacceptable.” The market again received a signal that a quick peaceful scenario is still in question
🟠 Trump also said he still wants to check gold reserves at Fort Knox. The topic is old, but for the gold market it’s symbolic: when even politicians return to the issue of real reserves, interest in the metal only increases

📈 Technical picture and plan
At first, the market showed strong impulses, then the price began to pull back, but overall activity remained elevated. After the weekend, we again see a downward move coming off local resistances.
🟠 Supports: 4660-4668 (nearest zone), 4548-4560 (reaction zone), 4495-4510 (lower support)
🟠 Resistances: 4678-4688 (breakout zone), 4712-4720 (local resistance), 4735-4748 (seller’s zone), 4780-4795 (H1 resistance)
🟠 ATR remains elevated. The market continues to move with wide candles, so you need to be careful.
🟠 Plan: watch how price reacts in the 4660-4668 and 4678-4688 areas. If the buyer holds the nearest support, you can look for a continuation higher. If the price consolidates below, the next area of interest will be closer to 4548-4560. One of today’s important events is sales in the US secondary housing market, but for now the main driver still remains geopolitics.

💰 Day’s trading recap
On Friday, I didn’t open any trades. The morning started with high volatility and strong impulses, and in the evening, Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment, and wage data were released. In such moments, the market often becomes too sharp and unpredictable, so I didn’t risk capital on a “just in case” trade. And this is also part of trading. Sometimes the best trade is the one you didn’t open—especially when the market is driven by news, where a single headline can completely break the technical picture within minutes.

Today, activity on the chart is elevated again, but we’ll watch more calmly. If clear zones and a normal price reaction appear, we’ll look for trading ideas. If the market starts to jerk again without structure, it’s better to skip than to jump into chaos.

🤝 Conclusion
The situation in the Middle East is not getting better. Hormuz, Iran, the US, oil, Trump’s statements—everything is now directly influencing gold. What’s more, the market reacts to news so quickly that, in places, economic indicators simply move into the background. The period is really not easy, but it’s very valuable. Such experience is costly, because it’s in weeks like these that you can see who trades according to a system and who just presses buttons based on emotions.

Our task remains the same: maintain discipline, wait for your levels, and trade only where there’s a clear logic.