Bitcoin is tense ahead of CPI... If inflation rebounds, a re-test of $80k is possible

Ahead of the U.S. April Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, the Bitcoin (BTC) market is in a “nervous” state. The market is more inclined to the possibility that prices may rise again, and concerns that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may further delay interest rate cuts are intensifying.

April CPI, expected to increase 3.7% year-over-year… Will it be more “hot” than last month?

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the April CPI on the 12th local time. Market expectations are a 0.6% month-over-month increase and a 3.7% year-over-year increase. This figure is higher than March’s 3.3%, highlighting the possibility of “resurgent inflation.” Core CPI is also expected to rise 2.7% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month.

On Polymarket, the probability of inflation exceeding 3% in 2026 is reflected as 100%, and the chance of exceeding 3.5% is 94%. Some market participants believe higher figures than expected may occur. Edward Downward warned that April CPI could surge to 4.1%, and pointed out that recession risks and price pressures triggered by oil prices are increasing simultaneously.

Bitcoin (BTC), facing a bifurcation point at $80k or $90k based on inflation trends

If prices exceed expectations, Bitcoin (BTC) could face immediate selling pressure. Given Bitcoin’s recent failure to break through resistance levels of $82k to $84k, discussions have resurfaced about retesting the $80k mark and probing the $78k support level. Some forecasts suggest that if panic intensifies, prices could be pushed back into the $70k range.

Conversely, if CPI shows signs of slowing, market sentiment could quickly shift. Bitcoin (BTC) might again target the unfilled CME gap near $93k and resistance zones between $90k and $95k. Ultimately, this CPI is a key variable in determining rate cut expectations and Bitcoin’s (BTC) trajectory, and markets are preparing for significant volatility after the announcement.

Article summary by TokenPost.ai 🔎 Market interpretation: Ahead of the U.S. April CPI release, the market leans toward the possibility of inflation rising again, raising concerns about the Fed delaying rate cuts. Bitcoin has entered a phase of sensitive response to macroeconomic variables, with its directional trend expected to diverge significantly based on CPI results. 💡 Strategy points: If CPI exceeds expectations, be prepared for short-term declines (from $80k to testing the $70k range). Conversely, if signs of slowdown appear, attempt to re-enter the $90k to $95k zone. Volatility may increase after the release, so leverage trading and short-term operations must implement risk management. 📘 Terminology explanation: CPI: Consumer Price Index, a core economic indicator measuring inflation rate. Core CPI: Prices excluding food and energy, used to gauge more stable inflation trends. CME gap: The price difference between futures markets and spot markets, with a tendency for prices to fill this gap.

💡 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q. Why is CPI release important for Bitcoin prices? CPI is a key indicator of inflation levels, and its results can influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. If interest rates remain high, it could negatively impact risk assets like Bitcoin, making the market reaction sensitive. Q. What happens if CPI exceeds expectations? If inflation is stronger than expected, the likelihood of delaying rate cuts increases, potentially causing selling pressure across the market. Bitcoin could temporarily fall below $80k or experience further downward volatility. Q. Conversely, what if CPI is below expectations? If prices slow down, rate cut expectations will rise, and investor sentiment may improve. In this scenario, Bitcoin might again test resistance zones above $90k and attempt an upward trend.

TP AI notes: This summary was generated using a language model based on TokenPost.ai. It may omit details or differ from the main content of the original article.