U.S.-Iran Talks Collapse Ignites the Market: Oil Prices Rush Toward the $100 Mark, and Safe-Haven Logic Changes

Multiple rounds of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have brought clear signals of a breakdown. Trump said Iran’s response to the peace plan is “unacceptable,” and Iranian media later confirmed that they have officially rejected the U.S. proposal, pushing the game between the two sides into a deadlock. The moment the news broke, global financial markets reacted rapidly, with geopolitical risk directly rewriting short-term pricing logic.
The energy market is hit first. WTI crude oil opened more than 3% higher, once again nearing the $100 mark, as concerns about the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz keep intensifying. As a crucial global oil transportation channel, tensions in the strait directly disrupt the energy supply chain. Behind the surge in oil prices is panic-driven pricing for possible supply interruptions, which also lifts expectations for a rebound in inflation again.
In contrast to the sharp jump in oil prices, spot gold unexpectedly came under pressure, and U.S. stock index futures fell slightly by about 0.3%. This unusual performance is driven by inflation expectations boosted by high oil prices—market bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates have been forced to be delayed. Upward pressure on real interest rates has suppressed gold’s appeal as a safe haven, while U.S. stocks face profit-taking amid dual uncertainty from inflation and geopolitics.
The market is now shifting from an optimistic outlook of “negotiation cooling” to a risk mode of “conflict escalation.” If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues into the second half of the year, global energy markets will remain under pressure. The tug-of-war between inflation persistence and policy shifts will become the main theme for the market, and investors need to be alert to the amplifying effect of volatility caused by repeated swings in the geopolitical situation.#特朗普5月13日访华 #Polymarket每日热点