U.S.-Iran Negotiation Breaks Down, Triggering the Market: Oil Prices Roar Toward the $100 Mark as “Safe-Haven” Logic Shifts

Multiple rounds of U.S.-Iran talks have sent clear signals of a breakdown. Trump said Iran’s response to the peace plan is “unacceptable.” Iranian media then confirmed that it has officially rejected the U.S. proposal, pushing the standoff between the two sides into a deadlock. The moment the news broke, global financial markets reacted quickly, with geopolitical risk directly rewriting near-term pricing logic.
The energy market was hit first. WTI crude opened up more than 3% and once again tested the $100 level. Concerns about the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz kept intensifying. As a key global oil transportation route, the strained situation in the strait directly disrupts the energy supply chain. Behind the surge in oil prices is panic pricing for potential supply disruptions, which also lifts expectations for an inflation rebound once again.
In contrast to the spike in oil prices, spot gold unexpectedly came under pressure, while U.S. stock futures edged down by about 0.3%. This unusual performance is driven by inflation expectations boosted by high oil prices. As a result, market bets on the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut timeline have been pushed back, and upward pressure on real interest rates has suppressed gold’s appeal as a safe haven. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks face profit-taking amid dual uncertainties from inflation and geopolitics.
The market is currently shifting from optimistic expectations of “negotiation cooling” to a risk scenario of “conflict escalation.” If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues into the second half of the year, the global energy market will remain under pressure. The tug-of-war between inflation stickiness and policy shifts will become the main theme for markets, and investors should watch for volatility amplified by repeated reversals in geopolitical conditions. #特朗普5月13日访华 #Polymarket每日热点