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Stay tuned! A 13-year sleeping Bitcoin whale has transferred $40 billion

A Bitcoin wallet that has been dormant for 13 years suddenly transferred approximately $40 billion worth of Bitcoin recently, marking one of the largest whale transfers in recent years. The wallet has been inactive since 2013, and the transferred Bitcoin was sent to a new wallet unrelated to any known exchange. The motive behind the transfer remains unclear. Since the Bitcoin was moved to a new wallet not associated with any known exchange and not sold directly, it is unlikely to have an immediate market impact. Speculation suggests that the move could involve asset restructuring, security migration, or preparations for future operations.

What is the potential market impact?

1. Short-term psychological impact: may trigger market volatility but with limited magnitude

Panic speculation dominates initial reactions: Large holder (whale) activity is often interpreted by the market as a potential sell signal, especially when Bitcoin prices are at historic highs (currently around $105k). Investors may worry that this transfer is a precursor to selling, leading to short-term panic selling. For example, in July 2025, a similar event involving the transfer of 20k BTC caused the price to dip slightly from $112k to $108.7k, a decline of about 3%.

Emotional amplification effect: The market is highly sensitive to “sleeping wallet” awakenings, which can amplify negative narratives (such as asset cashing out or regulatory risks), potentially triggering algorithmic trading and leverage liquidations, intensifying short-term volatility. Historical cases show that such events usually cause price swings within hours, but if no actual selling occurs, the impact quickly diminishes.

Current market buffer mechanisms: Thanks to liquidity support from Bitcoin spot ETFs (such as BlackRock’s iBit Trust) and institutional custody platforms, the market’s ability to absorb whale transfers has significantly improved. For example, in January 2026, a sale of 500 BTC caused only a “slight wobble” in price because ETF and market maker mechanisms absorbed the selling pressure. Therefore, this event might only cause a 1%-3% intraday fluctuation rather than a sharp decline.

2. Medium-term supply and demand impact: depends on subsequent actions, actual impact is controllable

No direct sale means no supply shock: Since the Bitcoin has not entered exchanges, market supply has not actually increased. Moving to a new wallet is more akin to internal management rather than market activity, so it does not immediately alter the supply-demand balance. This is consistent with multiple cases in 2024-2025: long-term holders transferring assets and not quickly cashing out tend to stabilize prices after initial volatility.

Liquidity depth testing: Currently, Bitcoin’s daily trading volume exceeds $30 billion, and institutional participation (such as MicroStrategy’s continuous accumulation) has increased, making the proportion of a $40 billion transfer relatively lower. Meanwhile, the amount of Bitcoin available on exchanges is at a six-year low, but OTC trading and ETF subscription networks can efficiently handle large orders, preventing a price crash.

Potential turning signals: If the wallet later transfers Bitcoin to exchanges or on-chain data shows split transactions, it could be seen as a bearish signal, leading to a mid-term correction (e.g., 5%-10% decline). Conversely, if the assets remain in the new wallet long-term, market sentiment may turn neutral or even bullish (e.g., whales showing confidence in long-term value).
Regardless, a potential sell-off of $40 billion is no small matter. We will closely monitor the new wallet’s movements, and the “big money” will keep you updated with the latest news. Give us a like and follow!