The Xi-Trump meeting is coming up! The "U.S.-Iran conflict" is listed as a focus, and they will also discuss nuclear weapons, AI, and Taiwan.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are about to hold a summit in Beijing. Both sides will negotiate on Iran’s nuclear program, global supply chains, and geopolitical matters.

The Trump-Xi meeting will kick off in Beijing, with the Iran war as the top agenda item

U.S. President Donald Trump (Donald Trump) is expected to visit Beijing from May 14 to 15 to hold two days of talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This will mark the first time in nearly nine years that a U.S. president has visited China.

According to multiple reports by foreign media outlets, the agenda will cover multiple highly sensitive issues, including the Iran conflict, nuclear weapons, Taiwan, AI, rare earths, and trade—among which the Iran war is seen as the most urgent focus of this summit.

U.S. officials said that Trump will demand that Beijing reduce its support for Iran, especially in areas that may involve dual-use military and civilian technologies, satellite data, energy transactions, and supply chain assistance.

Washington has recently imposed sanctions on some Chinese companies and transportation networks, accusing them of helping Iran’s military and energy systems. China, in contrast, argues that the situation in Iran should be de-escalated by the U.S. and opposes unilateral sanctions. Because China has long been an important buyer of Iran’s energy exports and also maintains close economic and trade ties with countries in the Persian Gulf, Beijing has influence in this conflict, but it must also avoid being seen as endorsing Washington.

Nuclear weapons and AI are added to the agenda; Beijing shows limited interest in arms control talks

Besides the Iran issue, the U.S. also hopes to push for broader strategic security dialogue in these talks, including risk controls related to nuclear weapons and AI. U.S. officials said that as China’s nuclear arsenal continues to expand, Washington wants Beijing to participate in more formal nuclear arms control discussions, but China has shown limited interest in such negotiations so far.

In the past, Beijing has repeatedly argued that China’s nuclear weapons scale is far below that of the U.S. and Russia, and therefore should not be included in an arms control framework on the same footing. AI has also been listed as an important new topic for this summit. As competition between the U.S. and China in advanced chips, model capabilities, and military AI applications intensifies, both sides may discuss establishing communication channels to reduce the risk of AI technology being misused or causing military misjudgments.

However, analysts believe that the fundamental contradictions between the U.S. and China in the AI industry remain difficult to resolve.

• On China’s side, it controls more than 60% of the global rare earth mining and refining capacity. Rare earths, in turn, are an important material for electric vehicles, defense/military industry, AI chips, and advanced electronic products. If supply disruptions occur, they could directly hit the global technology industry.
• On the other hand, the U.S. continues to step up restrictions on the export of advanced chips and AI technology to China, while China also promotes semiconductor self-sufficiency and a RMB settlement system. Economic confrontation between the two has gradually become institutionalized.

The U.S. wants to limit China’s ability to obtain advanced chips and semiconductor equipment, while China demands that Washington relax export controls. This means that AI dialogue is not only a technological governance issue—it also directly affects the two countries’ supply chains and national security interests.

The rare earth agreement remains effective; trade negotiations hope to deliver short-term results

On economic and trade matters, rare earths and critical minerals will be important bargaining chips in this meeting.

• U.S. officials said that the rare earth agreement previously reached between the U.S. and China remains effective, and Washington hopes Beijing will continue to allow exports of rare earths and critical minerals to U.S. companies, to avoid disruptions to automotive, aerospace, and defense manufacturing supply chains.
• China, meanwhile, hopes the U.S. will relax restrictions on advanced semiconductor and chip manufacturing equipment, especially to gain more room in the supply chain for high-end AI chips and semiconductors.

Both sides may also discuss establishing a new trade and investment communication mechanism to cooperate on goods that do not involve sensitive national-security industries. Market-watched short-term outcomes could include China expanding purchases of U.S. agricultural products, energy, Boeing aircraft, and non-soybean crops.

Some reports point out that the U.S. hopes China will purchase about 25 million tons of soybeans each year in the coming years, and will increase imports of beef, poultry, coal, oil, and natural gas. For Trump, obtaining trade results that can be presented publicly before the midterm elections would carry clear political significance.

Taiwan and the trade impasse are unlikely to be resolved in a single meeting; the summit is more like risk management

Although markets expect the Trump-Xi summit to bring breakthroughs to the U.S.-China trade impasse, most analysts believe this summit is more likely to be about “risk management” rather than a comprehensive reconciliation. The Taiwan issue remains one of the most sensitive risk points in the bilateral relationship.

Senior Chinese diplomatic officials have recently emphasized to the U.S. that Taiwan is the “biggest risk point” in China-U.S. relations, urging the U.S. to make the right choices regarding relevant commitments. The U.S., for its part, maintains arms sales and security support for Taiwan, and a major policy shift is unlikely in the short term.

On the other hand, even though the U.S.-China trade war reached a temporary pause last year, issues such as tariffs, export controls, rare earths, investment restrictions, and China’s industrial overcapacity remain unresolved. If both sides can extend the trade ceasefire, resume some commercial purchases, and establish a regular dialogue mechanism, it can already be considered a short-term stability signal.

However, with the Iran war, energy prices, the militarization of AI, and risks across the Taiwan Strait all existing at the same time, this Trump-Xi summit is full of uncertainty. For global markets, what is truly worth paying attention to is not just how good the two sides’ statements sound after the meeting, but whether Beijing and Washington are willing to put the conflicts back within a manageable range.