Trump suddenly plans to visit China, and the timing is very delicate. On one side, US-Iran talks have broken down and tensions in the Middle East are tight; on the other side, US Treasury debt has broken through $37 trillion, and the new chair of the Federal Reserve has just taken office, among other things.

If he comes at this moment, it’s most likely not to just come have tea.

Three real objectives are more likely: pressuring China to buy more US debt, discussing trade surpluses, and, as an added bonus, using it to build momentum for the year-end elections. As for old issues—technology restrictions, the Taiwan Strait, and so on—this itinerary won’t loosen them.

For Chinese assets (A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, offshore RMB), this is a short-term positive for sentiment. As long as there’s a meeting, it’s a “controlled” signal. But don’t expect any substantive breakthroughs. After past summits between leaders, the tariffs that should be added and the chips that should be banned—none of them are spared.

What about risk assets like $BTC ? The bigger variable is still how Fed chair Wōsh will play his hand. If Trump’s visit to China is just for show, the market reaction will be rather flat. Only if they really manage to talk out something (for example, renegotiating trade agreements) will it affect global liquidity expectations.

Just listen to the briefing. Don’t rush to go long just because the words “visit to China” are in the headline. What truly affects the money in your pocket is who buys US debt—and how the Federal Reserve shrinks its balance sheet. #Gate广场五月交易分享