Recently, I only noticed after watching the charts more closely: the damage to your sleep from floating losses is far greater than the harm from floating gains. When I’m up, I’ll still think, “Don’t get cocky—pullbacks are normal.” But when I’m down, my brain automatically fills in the worst-case scenario. Even though I haven’t sold, my heartbeat feels like it already lost money. Later I thought about it and found it kind of funny: those little fluctuations aren’t even as big as a small spike in the hash rate curve I used to watch, but emotions just don’t follow reason.

Maybe it’s loss aversion. To put it plainly, the sting caused by losing 1 unit takes earning several units to wipe out. Lately I’ve also been discussing rate-cut expectations and the US Dollar Index. Sometimes risk assets rise and fall together—when the macro “wind” changes, people like me who “read macro from hash rate” get pulled along too. My current clumsy method is to look less at short-term profits and losses, and more at whether my original cost assumptions still hold. If they don’t, I accept defeat; if they do, I put the phone away… for now, that’s it.