Today’s rollercoaster in the crypto world—“sharp drop during the day, violent surge at night”—is essentially a scramble between bulls and bears triggered by sudden geopolitical black swan events and institutional bottom support.

Peeling back the complex candlestick patterns, the core reasons mainly include the following three points:

1. Immediate trigger: Unexpected developments in US-Iran talks, risk sentiment sharply shifting

Drop during the day (sudden bearish attack): Over the weekend, market rumors of easing US-Iran negotiations boosted risk appetite. But this morning, the situation suddenly changed; President Trump publicly stated Iran’s response was “completely unacceptable,” and Iran also took a tough stance. Geopolitical conflict fears instantly ignited, causing panic sentiment that briefly pushed Bitcoin below $80k, leading to a rapid downward sell-off.

Nighttime surge (exhausted of bearish pressure): The crypto market’s sensitivity to geopolitical news is waning. After a brief digestion of panic, funds quickly refocus on technical and liquidity logic, triggering a strong rebound at night, with Bitcoin rising steadily past $82,000.

2. Internal engine: Institutional “bottom support” frenzy and short squeeze

Institutional strong support: Recently, Bitcoin spot ETF funds have been continuously flowing in, with weekly inflows exceeding $1 billion. Wall Street giants like BlackRock have been aggressively accumulating near $80k, forming a strong bottom support. The downside space is tightly sealed.

Shorts caught in a squeeze: Driven by institutional buying, Bitcoin broke through key resistance levels, triggering stop-losses and liquidations of many short positions. This “buy more as it rises” (short squeeze) passive buying accelerated the night’s vertical surge. Over the past 24 hours, more than 90k high-leverage contracts traders have been wiped out.

3. Hidden manipulators: “Targeted liquidations” before Friday’s options settlement

This Friday (May 12) is the monthly options expiration date. Currently, a large portion of options positions are concentrated between $80,000 and $85,000. Major funds have sharply shaken out positions at this level, aiming to liquidate all extreme orders on both sides, thereby facilitating a smooth transfer of positions with minimal resistance and preparing for a one-sided trend after settlement.

💡 A summary sentence:

Today’s wild swings—“geopolitical news surprise + institutional support + pre-expiry options shakeout”—are a combined double-edged trap for bulls and bears. In this narrow-range, key decision point, high-leverage contracts are akin to walking on a knife’s edge. Watching more, acting less, and safeguarding spot holdings are the best survival strategies amid chaos. #BTC