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Is the Federal Reserve about to change leadership? Kevin Warsh could become the "biggest variable in the crypto world"
Recently, a heavyweight name has been circulating on Wall Street: Kevin Warsh.
Many market participants believe he might become the next Federal Reserve Chair. And this news could be more important to the crypto world than a BTC ETF.
Why?
Because the Fed Chair's decisions influence not just interest rates, but the "main water tap" of global liquidity.
The most classic rule in the crypto market over the past few years is:
Liquidity injection, BTC soars;
Interest rate hikes, altcoins plummet;
Hawkish speeches, insomnia across the internet.
And Kevin Warsh has always been considered hawkish. This means that if he indeed takes over in the future, the Fed might continue to keep interest rates high for a longer period.
What is the market most afraid of now?
Most afraid of "the dream of rate cuts being shattered."
Previously, many investors bet that the Fed would continue cutting rates in the coming months, leading risk assets to rally early. But if the new chair adopts a more hawkish stance, the entire market valuation logic could be recalibrated.
For BTC, a high-interest-rate environment isn't very comfortable. Because funds prefer to buy high-yield dollar assets rather than high-volatility cryptocurrencies.
Interestingly, BTC is gradually shedding its label as a "pure risk asset." Some institutions are starting to see it as a geopolitical risk hedge.
Thus, a strange phenomenon has emerged:
When there is too much bad news, BTC actually rises.
Because global capital begins to worry about the uncertainties in the traditional financial system.
So, the biggest contradiction for BTC in the future might be:
Is it a technology risk asset or a digital safe-haven asset?
If the market ultimately chooses the latter, BTC's valuation system will be fundamentally changed.
But until the answer becomes clear, the market will remain very volatile.
In other words: the crypto market might not be a "bull market" or a "bear market," but rather an "emotional rollercoaster market." #CLARITY法案下周审议