The Xi-Trump meeting is coming up! The "U.S.-Iran conflict" has been listed as a focus, and they will also discuss nuclear weapons, AI, and Taiwan.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to hold a summit in Beijing. The two sides will negotiate on Iran’s nuclear program, the global supply chain, and geopolitics.

The Trump–Xi summit will kick off in Beijing, with Iran war as the top agenda item

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to visit Beijing on May 14 to 15, where he will hold two days of talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This will be the first visit by a U.S. president to China in nearly 9 years.

According to multiple foreign media reports, the agenda for both sides will cover a range of highly sensitive issues, including the Iran conflict, nuclear weapons, Taiwan, AI, rare earths, and trade—of which the Iran war is seen as the most urgent focus of this summit.

U.S. officials said Trump will ask Beijing to reduce its support for Iran, especially in areas that may involve dual-use technologies, satellite data, energy transactions, and assistance with supply chains.

Washington has recently imposed sanctions on some Chinese companies and transportation networks, accusing them of supporting Iran’s military and energy systems. China, in turn, argues that the Iran situation should be cooled down by the U.S. side and opposes unilateral sanctions. Because China has long been a major buyer of Iran’s energy exports and also maintains close economic and trade ties with countries in the Persian Gulf, Beijing has influence in this conflict—but it also must avoid being seen as endorsing Washington.

Nuclear weapons and AI are added to the agenda; Beijing has limited interest in arms control talks

In addition to the Iran issue, the U.S. also wants to promote broader strategic security dialogue during the talks, including nuclear weapons and risk management for AI. U.S. officials said that as China’s nuclear arsenal continues to expand, Washington hopes Beijing will take part in more formal nuclear arms control discussions, but China has shown limited interest in such negotiations so far.

Beijing has repeatedly argued in the past that China’s nuclear weapons scale is far below that of the U.S. and Russia, so it should not be included in an arms control framework on the same footing. AI has also been listed as an important new agenda item for this summit. As competition between the U.S. and China intensifies in advanced chips, model capabilities, and military AI applications, the two sides may discuss setting up communication channels to reduce the risk of AI technology being misused or triggering military misjudgments.

However, analysts believe the fundamental contradictions between the U.S. and China in the AI industry will still be difficult to resolve.

• On the China side, it controls more than 60% of global rare earth mining and refining capacity, and rare earths are an important material for electric vehicles, defense industries, AI chips, and advanced electronic products. If supply fluctuates, it could directly disrupt the global technology industry.
• On the other hand, the U.S. has continued to tighten restrictions on exporting advanced chips and AI technology to China. China is also pushing semiconductor self-reliance and a renminbi settlement system in parallel. As a result, economic-level confrontation between the two sides has gradually become institutionalized.

The U.S. wants to limit China’s access to advanced chips and semiconductor equipment, while China asks Washington to ease export controls. This means AI dialogue is not only about technology governance—it also directly affects the two countries’ supply chains and national security interests.

The rare earth agreement remains in effect; trade talks hope to deliver short-term results

On the economic front, rare earths and key minerals will be important bargaining chips for this round of talks.

• U.S. officials said the rare earth agreement previously reached between the U.S. and China is still in effect. Washington hopes Beijing will continue to allow exports of rare earths and key minerals to U.S. companies, to avoid impacts on automobile, aerospace, and defense manufacturing supply chains.
• China hopes the U.S. will ease restrictions on advanced semiconductor and chip manufacturing equipment, especially to gain more room in the supply chains for high-end AI chips and semiconductors.

The two sides may also discuss establishing a new communication mechanism for trade and investment, aiming to cooperate on goods that do not involve sensitive national security industries. Market attention on short-term outcomes may include China expanding purchases of U.S. agricultural products, energy, Boeing aircraft, and non-soybean crops.

Some reports indicate that the U.S. wants China to purchase about 25,000,000 metric tons of soybeans per year over the coming years, and to increase imports of beef, poultry, coal, oil, and natural gas. For Trump, obtaining trade results that can be showcased externally before the midterm elections would have clear political significance.

Taiwan and a trade deadlock are unlikely to be solved in one go; the summit is more like risk management

Although markets expect the Trump–Xi summit to bring a breakthrough to the U.S.–China trade deadlock, most analysts believe this summit is more likely to be a “risk management” exercise rather than a “comprehensive reconciliation.” The Taiwan issue remains one of the most sensitive risk points in the relationship between the two sides.

Senior Chinese diplomatic officials have recently emphasized to the U.S. side that Taiwan is the “biggest risk point” in U.S.–China relations, and have urged the U.S. to make the right choice regarding relevant commitments. The U.S. maintains arms sales to Taiwan and security support, and a major policy shift in the short term is unlikely.

On the other hand, although the U.S.–China trade war reached a temporary pause last year, tariff issues, export controls, rare earths, investment restrictions, and China’s industrial capacity problems have not been resolved. If both sides can extend the trade pause, resume some commercial purchasing, and establish a regular dialogue mechanism, that can already be seen as a short-term stability signal.

However, with the Iran war, energy prices, AI militarization, and risks across the Taiwan Strait all present at the same time, this Trump–Xi summit is full of uncertainty. For global markets, what truly matters is not just how good the statements after the summit sound, but whether Beijing and Washington are willing to put the conflict back into a manageable range.