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Analysis of Bitcoin on 5/11 noon
1. Overbought and Divergence: Rebounded from 59,800 to over 82,000, a gain of over 37%; daily RSI approaching 70 in overbought territory, MACD red histogram continues to shrink, indicating a potential top divergence, upward momentum weakening.
2. Strong Resistance Suppression: $82,000–$84,300 is a historically high-volume trading zone plus previous trapped positions, multiple attempts to break through have failed, forming an early "triple top" pattern, with heavy selling pressure.
3. Moving Average Risks: Short-term moving average (EMA50) is flat, the 120-day moving average is turning upward but with a gentle slope, medium- to long-term support is fragile; if it falls below 80,000, it may trigger a bearish moving average alignment.
Trading suggestion: Short down near 80,500–81,000
First target: 79,000
Second target: 78,000