Since Bitcoin fell below the MA200 in November last year, it has entered a bearish downtrend. Currently, it is the first rebound testing the MA200 at a price of 82,036.

Referring to historical bull and bear market patterns: in a bear market, the MA200 rarely breaks through on the first test; it often requires a second or third test before a breakthrough. The probability of an effective breakthrough at 82,036 this time is extremely low, and the chance of a sharp decline is higher, indicating a countdown to a plunge.
This round of rally, which started at the end of March, has lasted over 40 days without a significant correction. The upward slope has continued to accelerate, representing the final frenzy at the end of the trend. Retail investors' chasing high emotions are rising, but this is not a true sign of strength—just an extreme trap to lure more buyers.