Lately I've been looking at the curves of stablecoin supply again, and I feel like many people automatically assume "off-chain money is flowing in = ETF is flying high" once it goes up, but honestly, correlation does not equal causation. A large supply of stablecoins might just mean everyone prefers to hold cash and wait for opportunities, or they’re moving assets from other chains/exchanges, or even due to changes in borrowing interest rates on collateralized loans, minting/redeeming just jitters a bit, like weather charts that change direction with a gust of wind.

Whether it's ETFs or OTC, I prefer to see it as a "background wind"; when it comes to actual positions, I still look at borrowing rates and liquidation density to see if things are getting awkward. By the way, that recent trend of social mining and fan tokens—"attention equals mining"—is lively, but attention comes and goes quickly. I'm a bit worried about using it as a long-term funding source.

What I fear most isn't slow progress, but chaos—slow can be gradually accumulated, but when things go haywire, interest rates, liquidity, and sentiment all go haywire together, and risk control simply can't react in time. For now, just keep an eye on the curve and don’t get carried away by stories.