The wind rises from the very tip of green duckweed, and the waves build between faint ripples.

Good morning on Monday!

Last night, the short at 81,500 also played out as expected, netting over a thousand points. Following the breakdown of the US–Iran negotiations, BTC and gold showed a rare divergence in their safe-haven attributes—truly beyond what anyone would have expected. No surprises turning into danger: overnight, the orange spread was managed well with take-profit and stop-loss, and thankfully it didn’t force any existing gains to be given back.

Enough small talk—let’s look at the technicals first. The 4-hour MACD forms a golden cross, and the 200-day EMA has repeatedly suppressed rebounds. The short-term structure is biased bullish. The funding rate has shifted from long-term negative to positive; short-side costs are rising, and the marginal sell pressure is weakening. The daily RSI is approaching 70—if there’s no breakout, it could form a bearish (top) divergence.

On the macro front, tomorrow the United States will release April CPI, with a forecast of 3.56%, which will directly suppress BTC’s valuation premium. Before that, institutions are inclined to reduce risk exposure, clamp down on daytime momentum, and stack on geopolitical uncertainties such as the breakdown of the US–Iran negotiations.

Overall, during the day the market will likely consolidate in a high-range between 800 and 824, with the focus leaning bullish but with strong resistance along the upper edge. For short-term orange spread traders, you may reference a light long position in the 805–810 pullback range, and watch whether today’s high can be broken upward. $BTC #BTC突破82000美元