#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bull and bear trap: scared away during the day, driven crazy at night

Bitcoin's current market can be described as a textbook example of the "Heaven and Earth Needle" pattern.
On May 9th, positive signals emerged from US-Iran negotiations, with the US stock market S&P 500 soaring 1.46% to 7,365.12 points, and the Nasdaq jumping 2.02% to 25,838.94 points, both hitting new record closing highs, and market risk appetite significantly rebounding.
However, this optimism was short-lived. Iran quickly stated that uranium enrichment is a "red line," not a bargaining chip. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced simultaneously that it would establish a new "control system" in the Strait of Hormuz, implying that even if passage is opened in the future, it will be selectively controlled under Iran's dominance. The US-Iran conflict is far from over.
On May 10th, US President Trump posted on his social platform "Real Social" that he had read Iran's response, calling it "completely unacceptable." Just the day before, the US military confirmed it had attacked two Iranian oil tankers, and Iran retaliated by firing missiles at the UAE. According to CCTV News, Iran's response to the US proposal to end the war focused on ending the conflict and maritime security issues in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's military spokesperson further threatened: countries that follow the US sanctions on Iran will "face difficulties" when passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the US imposed additional sanctions on Iran-related oil networks and continued military deterrence.
As a result, international oil prices surged again. As of 6:48 Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures rose 3.1% to $98.33 per barrel, and Brent crude oil increased 3.08% to $104.41 per barrel. High oil prices combined with inflation concerns have almost completely eliminated the Fed's expectation of rate cuts within 2026.
Looking ahead, the deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be quickly resolved. A recent Goldman Sachs survey shows that investors generally expect the shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to persist into the second half of the year, and sporadic US-Iran naval clashes near Hormuz have already lasted for quite some time. Meanwhile, a Qatar liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier has, for the first time in about 70 days, passed through the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman, using Iran's recently activated new shipping route. During the passage, it stopped transmitting location signals for a long time, a subtle move indicating that the situation still contains uncertainties.