Currently, the biggest pillar supporting non-recession until 2026 is AI infrastructure~

Once the market realizes that large model investments (Capex) cannot be converted into actual profits, a sharp decline in capital expenditure will cause the tech sector (41% weight) to collapse, dragging down the real economy...
The Capex of large models can be converted into real profits~
What does the current evidence say?
ByteDance AI inference costs are 2.3 times the revenue increase, Anthropic loses 10 billion annually, OpenAI's secondary market has $600 million in zero transactions—tech giants look good on the books because cloud services and advertising are still bleeding, not because AI itself is making money~
Once the market collectively realizes this—
A sharp reduction in capital expenditure → Nvidia orders plummet → data center construction halts → tech sector crashes—
#AI基建 #Tech Bubble #美股 #2026 Recession Risk