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US-Iran Negotiations Face Uncertainty, Gold Performs a Dive Show

The breakdown of US-Iran negotiations again presents a complex pattern of short-term pressure and long-term support on gold prices

⚡️ ‌Immediate Shock: Safe-Haven Failure Triggers Selling‌

‌Price Plunge‌

After Trump publicly rejected Iran's proposal on May 10:

‌Spot gold gap down opening‌ Nearly $40 drop, briefly falling to‌ $1,467.89/oz‌ (a 0.8% plunge from the previous day's $1,716)

‌Futures market also declines‌: New York June gold contract drops below $4,700 (down over 2%)

‌Panic transmission‌: Fear and greed index shifts from "neutral" to "fear" zone

‌Unusual Logic Analysis‌

‌Oil prices surge and kill gold‌: Brent crude oil soars 3.5% to $104.8 per barrel → ‌Inflation expectations heat up‌ → ‌Strengthen Fed rate hike expectations‌ → Real interest rates rise, suppressing gold

‌"Pseudo-safe-haven" emerges‌: Market believes US-Iran conflict‌ is unlikely to escalate in the short term‌ (like the ceasefire in April), instead worries about currency tightening caused by high oil prices

🔥 Deadly Triangle Loop: The Fatal Waltz of Oil, Inflation, and Rate Hikes

The Oil Bomb in the Strait of Hormuz

At the moment of negotiation breakdown, Brent crude oil prices soared 3.5%, as if strapped to a rocket. Once this vital waterway, responsible for 20% of global oil trade, is choked, the numbers flashing on gas station signs can keep the Fed Chair awake at night.

The Revival Ceremony of the Inflation Ghost

For every $1 increase in oil prices, the CPI demon licks the expectation of rate cuts. The market is alarmed: April inflation may break through the 3.5% warning line, with the Fed's rate cut probability plunging from 72% to 41%, and real interest rates wielding a spiked club, pushing gold into the abyss.

The Bloody Harvest of Dollar Hegemony

When US Treasury yields break above 4.8%, the dollar index grimly rises to 105. Gold holders suddenly realize: holding non-yielding metals is less profitable than exchanging for dollars to earn interest!

🛡️ ‌Gold's Redemption: Three Major Supports Still in Place‌

‌Physical Safe-Haven Demand‌

Chow Tai Fook / Lao Feng Xiang and other physical gold prices remain steady (at 1437 yuan/gram)

Central bank gold purchases continue: Poland's central bank increased holdings by 150 tons of gold by 2026 to resist turmoil

‌Trigger for Conflict Escalation‌

US military blocks the Strait of Hormuz with 21 warships → 61 merchant ships reroute (Data 9)

Israel conducts airstrikes in Lebanon, Houthi forces blockade the Red Sea → ‌Risks can ignite at any time‌

‌Medium-Long Term Pricing Anchors‌

If US and Iran fall into a "blockade-counterblockade" tug-of-war → ‌Oil prices stabilize above $100‌ → Global recession → Activation of gold's ultimate safe-haven attribute

📈 Market Outlook Guide

Air Force Commander

Core logic: Fed delays rate cuts + dollar hegemony; CPI data, hawkish statements

Operation zone: Gradually build short positions above $4,750

Bull God of War

Core logic: Oil tankers block the strait + central bank purchases; geopolitical emergencies, recession evidence

Operation zone: Long-term longs below $4,500

Fence Sitter

Core logic: Technical range oscillation

Operation zone: Buy low and sell high within $4,630-$4,750